用马克思主义视角浅析《使民主运转起来》看中国政治发展

本文从马克思主义视角分析帕特南的著作再观察我国的政治发展可以发现不少值得思考之处,这不失为一个看待我国政治文明建设的新视角。     

Unusual purchasing behavior during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic: The stimulus-organism-response approach

During the COVID-19 pandemic, unusual consumer behavior, such as hoarding toilet paper, was reported globally. We investigated this behavior when fears of consumer market disruptions started circulating, to capture human behavior in this unique situation. Based on the stimulus-organism-response (S-O-R) framework, we propose a structural model connecting exposure to online information sources (environmental stimuli) to two behavioral responses: unusual purchases and voluntary self-isolation. To test the proposed model, we collected data from 211 Finnish respondents via an online survey, and carried out analysis using PLS-SEM. We found a strong link between self-intention to self-isolate and intention to make unusual purchases, providing empirical evidence that the reported consumer behavior was directly linked to anticipated time spent in self-isolation. The results further revealed exposure to online information sources led to increased information overload and cyberchondria. Information overload was also a strong predictor of cyberchondria. Perceived severity of the situation and cyberchondria had significant impacts on people's intention to make unusual purchases and voluntarily self-isolate. Future research is needed to confirm the long-term effects of the pandemic on consumer and retail services.     

Improving Assessments of Gender Bargaining Power: A Case Study from Bangladesh

Gender bargaining power has entered into mainstream economic theory and public policy. However, common empirical measures are only loosely related to the theoretical concept, and research has not produced consistent results regarding the causal chains underlying women’s empowerment. This study critically examines accepted measures of bargaining power, arguing that participation in specific household decisions is not directly associated with the theoretical concept of bargaining power. The study analyzes the relationship between measures of participation in household decisions and individual and household characteristics thought to contribute to bargaining power. Using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data on Bangladesh over the period 1999–2011, the study finds that despite the loose relationship of the survey questions to the theoretical construct bargaining power, the decision-making questions provide relatively consistent and theoretically supported measures of this unobservable characteristic. Simple changes in using the measures would contribute to more robust and consistent findings.     

Determinants of seeking advice within defined contribution retirement savings schemes

We report results from a study of superannuation member advice‐seeking within their plan, explaining observed patterns by member age, gender, issue salience and size‐of‐bet effect. Inquiry mode, frequency and volume of contact with the advice‐provider, and sensitivity of members to legislative change and macroeconomic events are considered. Results show that gender (female more likely than male), age (older rather than younger), balance (larger rather than smaller) and experience (longer rather than shorter) are the strongest advice‐seeking predictors, consistent over time. Findings suggest member engagement around retirement planning may be more effective when considering the factors affecting advice‐seeking behaviour in general.     

分散决策下的双渠道供应链补偿策略——基于消费者渠道选择行为

为了有效解决由于对消费者的争夺从而引发的渠道之间关于定价、服务水平、利润等方面的冲突,基于消费者渠道选择行为,构建了网络直销市场与传统零售市场需求模型和双渠道供应链利润模型,运用Stackelberg模型,在制造商与零售商实施分决策时,通过制造商对零售商实施补偿激励前后的对比,分析了消费者渠道选择行为对网络直销渠道和传统零售渠道定价、制造商与零售商利润以及供应链总利润的影响,并求得最优定价及制造商的最优补偿额度和零售商的最优销售努力水平,进行了不同情况下的双渠道供应链利润的比较分析。结果表明,无论制造商是否实施补偿激励,都应随着网络消费者比例的增加而增加其网络直销价格;零售商的零售渠道价格应根据网络消费者比例的增加先降低到一定水平后再提升。当更多的消费者选择网络直销渠道时,制造商的补偿激励水平和零售商的销售努力程度均会下降。制造商应提高其补偿水平,进而激发零售商提高销售的努力水平,并使双方利润及供应链总利润最大化。研究结果为基于消费者选择行为的供应链补偿研究提供了新方法,对双渠道的供应链补偿研究有借鉴意义。     

Who Convinces Whom? Parent and Child Perceptions of Children's Engagement in Parental Purchase Decisions

Do children overestimate their engagement in parental purchase decisions? A systematic analysis of the articles enabled us to create a database of 149 cases where child and parent perceptions of children's engagement in parental purchase decisions were measured. The findings proved that there is congruence between children's and parents' perception of a child's engagement in most cases. Children's overestimation of their engagement in a parental decision to purchase products is likely the exception rather than the rule. The cases characterized as overestimations are related to product category and type of measured domain. (Children tend to overestimate their engagement more when the measures track participation or influence rather than decision independence.)     

Decision analytics mobilized with digital coaching

The context to be addressed is the digitalization of industry and industrial processes. Digitalization brings enhanced customer relationships and value‐chain integration, which are effective instruments to meet increasing competition and slimmer margins for productivity and profitability. Digitalization also brings more pronounced requirements for effective planning, problem solving and decision making in an increasingly complex and fast‐changing environment. Decision analytics will meet the challenges from the growing global competition that major industrial corporations face and will help solve the problems of big data/fast data that digitalization is generating as a by‐product. A mantra is appearing in business magazines – that powerful, intelligent systems will be effective tools for the digitalization of industrial processes – but much less attention appears to be paid to the fact that users need advanced knowledge and skills to benefit from the intelligent systems. First, an effective transfer of knowledge from developers, experts and researchers to users (including management) will be needed; second, the daily use and operations of the systems need to be supported, as automated, intelligent industrial systems are complex to operate. We look at this transfer as knowledge mobilization and will work out how the mobilization can be supported with coaching; this coaching needs to be digital, as human coaches are both scarce and too expensive to employ in large numbers.     

不完备信息系统辐射源威胁等级判定

针对不完备信息系统条件下的辐射源威胁等级判定问题，提出了一种基于改进容差关系粗糙集（ITR-RS）的不完备信息系统辐射源威胁等级判定方法。该方法将粗糙集中的不完备信息系统理论引入辐射源威胁等级判定中，并构建一套完备的决策规则提取模型。此外，利用辨识矩阵实现对属性的约简，在降低系统所需处理数据量的同时，提高了算法的实时性；在容差关系粗糙集的基础上，提出一种改进的容差关系，在属性主、客权重相结合的基础上引入阈值来划分加权阈值容差类，得到更为合理、准确的决策规则。仿真试验及分析表明，与经典RS算法相比，所提算法的威胁等级判定正确率提高了23%，可用于信息系统不完备条件下的辐射源威胁等级判定。     

Adam Smith on lotteries: an interpretation and formal restatement

The paper concerns a neglected aspect of the Wealth of Nations (with the notable exception of D. Levy 1999 Levy, D. M. 1999. “Adam Smith’s Katallactic Model of Gambling: Approbation from the Spectator.” Journal of the History of Economic Thought 21 (1): 81–91. doi:10.1017/S1053837200002868.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), dealing directly with decision under risk. In a few pages from book I, chapter 10, Adam Smith explicitly named “lotteries” various objects of choice (possible occupations, or investment opportunities, for instance) and provided an analysis which standard expected utility glasses would hardly fit. Taking this into account allows a better understanding of the part played by typical characters like the “projector” or the “sober man”, in such matters as Smith’s conception of entrepreneurship or of the credit market. The use of some modern concepts in decision analysis (inverse stochastic dominance, rank dependent utility, prudence toward risk), is a means to show the existence, in Smith’s work, of an original theory from decision under risk, where his analysis of lotteries in the Wealth of Nations is consistent with statements from his moral philosophy on asymmetric sensitivity to gains and losses and to the regulating part played by the impartial spectator.     

Uncertainty perception in bidding for Product-Service Systems under competition

This research investigates what impact of uncertainty perception arising from the existence of competition has on the pricing decision for Product-Service Systems (PSS) under uncertainty. PSS provision is an increasingly important area for many businesses and competition increases cognitive pressures on providers even further. We present an experimental study with industrial costing and bidding experts from the defence and aerospace sector. The study consisted of an experimental set-up via two questionnaires which differed in the existence of competition in the bidding scenario. The findings showed that bidding decision makers changed their evaluation of the cost estimate due to the introduction of competition but kept their evaluations of the profit margin and price bids constant. Furthermore, the participants listed the relevant sources of uncertainty that influenced their decision-making process. This research contributes to the literature in two ways. First, our findings showed that predictions from current theory regarding decision-making of cost estimation and pricing are not confirmed when competitively bidding for PSS. Second, we show uncertainty sources that influenced the decision makers and identified p the importance of internal processes of the PSS provider and environmental uncertainty.